GuildQuality

“The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present.” - John Naisbitt

This report contains a summary of the feedback received from our members in the Q4 2011 Market Predictions Survey conducted during the week of December 19. This survey is a continuation of the survey we began in October 2008. In this and prior surveys, GuildQuality requested feedback from the owners and operators among our hundreds of home builders, remodelers, contractors, and real estate developers that use our service. In each of the surveys, more than 100 people have provided feedback. 185 of our builders, remodelers, developers, and home services contractors responded to the 4th quarter survey.

It’s worth remembering that this is what people expect to happen in the near future. 6% anticipate the real estate and construction market will be worse six months from now; 39% forecast improvement. In every survey except our very first in Q4 2008, more have forecasted improvement than decline.

For your reading pleasure, our members shared the following comments, along with their forecasts: (more…)

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. – Yogi Berra

This report contains a summary of the feedback received from our members in the Q2 2011 Market Predictions Survey conducted during the week of June 15. This survey is a continuation of the survey we began in October 2008. In this and prior surveys, GuildQuality requested feedback from the owners and operators among our hundreds of home builders, remodelers, contractors, and real estate developers that use our service. In each of the surveys, more than 100 people provided feedback.

Guildmember Confidence Index

The Guildmember Confidence Index is a forward looking indicator that summarizes the predictions of the members who participated in our survey. A positive number suggests that more members predict improvement than decline. 100% would indicate all respondents forecasted improvement; -100% would indicate all forecasted decline. (more…)

In our Newsletter from March, you’ll find our Q1 Member Prediction Report, an article on the benefits of transparency and an overview of our new features.

Subscribe to our newsletter here.

Thank you to all the builders, remodelers, real estate developers, and contractors that participated in the survey. As in the seven prior surveys, more than 100 of you shared your thoughtful, humorous, motivating, painful, and encouraging feedback about the state of residential real estate and construction in general and your businesses in specific. To view prior reports, click here.

For this quarter’s forecast, I’m pleased to report encouraging news: Relative to any other quarter since we began this survey in late 2008, this quarter a higher percentage of our builders, remodelers, and developers predict their next six months will be improved over their last six months. More than 80% of members predict improvement in their businesses’ performance and more than 60% predict improvement in the market in general.

(more…)

In our Newsletter from January, you’ll find our Q4 Member Prediction Report, tips on how to get the most out of your membership  a great feature about a miniature castle built in South Carolina and more.

Subscribe to our newsletter here.

The results are in! More than 140 GuildQuality members participated in this quarter’s market predictions survey. The short answer: Most people are optimistic. For a more complete summary, check out the full report.

To view in full screen (highly recommended), click on “menu”  in the lower left-hand corner and “view full screen” below.

To read prior quarters’ summaries, click here.

In our Newsletter from September, you’ll find ways to integrate GuildQuality to your Twitter and Facebook accounts, why we switched the recommendation question in surveys from yes/ no to zero to four, our Q3 Member Prediction Report, and more.

Subscribe to our newsletter here.

Thank you to all the builders, remodelers, real estate developers, and contractors that participated in the survey. As in the seven prior surveys, more than 100 of you shared your thoughtful, humorous, motivating, painful, and encouraging feedback about the state of residential real estate and construction in general and your businesses in specific. To view prior reports, click here. To view the presentation in full screen (recommended), click on “menu”  in the lower left-hand corner, then “full screen”.

My thanks go out to all the builders, remodelers, real estate developers, and contractors who participated in our most recent survey. More than 100 of our members offered their predictions about which way things would go for their businesses and the market in general.

Click on the menu button below to view the full screen version. Also, you can find all past member predictions reports here.

In our Newsletter from May, we announce our 2010 Guildmaster award winners, feature our Q1 Member Predictions Report, announce a new partnership with James Hardie Preferred Remodelers and more.

Subscribe to our newsletter here.

3/24 Update: You may also be interested in this quarter’s summary of non-member feedback.

Since the fourth quarter of 2008, we’ve regularly surveyed our members, asking their opinions about the near term future for both their company and the the construction and real estate industry. (click here to view all past reports)

In each Member Predictions Survey, we ask our members to answer two primary questions:

“Relative to the previous six months, what kind of change do you expect in YOUR COMPANY’S PERFORMANCE over the next six months?”

“Relative to the previous six months, what kind of change do you expect in THE MARKET over the next six months?”

As in prior quarters, more than 100 of our members participated. This quarter’s feedback (provided between mid-March and yesterday) showed the most optimism since we began our “Guildmember Predictions” surveying. What follows are two ways of viewing their feedback, as well as all of the many comments provided by our homebuilders, remodelers, real estate developers, and contractors.

Guildmember Confidence Index (GCI)

The Guildmember Confidence Index boils all of the answers down to a single number. We calculate the GCI by subtracting the percentage of members predicting decline from the percentage predicting improvement. Therefore, a positive number means more members predict things will be getting better than worse. The only quarter in which the GCI has been negative (so far) has been Q4 2008.

(more…)

Since the fourth quarter of 2008, we’ve regularly surveyed our members, asking their opinions about the near term future for both their company and the the construction and real estate industry. (click here to view all past reports)

In each Member Predictions Survey, we ask our members to answer two primary questions:

“Relative to the previous six months, what kind of change do you expect in YOUR COMPANY’S PERFORMANCE over the next six months?”

“Relative to the previous six months, what kind of change do you expect in THE MARKET over the next six months?”

As in prior quarters, more than 100 of our members participated. This quarter’s feedback (provided between mid-December and this morning) showed the most optimism since we began our “Guildmember Predictions” surveying. What follows are two ways of viewing their feedback, as well as all of the additional comments provided by our homebuilders, remodelers, real estate developers, and contractors.

Guildmember Confidence Index (GCI)

The Guildmember Confidence Index boils all of the answers down to a single number. We calculate the GCI by subtracting the percentage of members predicting decline from the percentage predicting improvement. Therefore, a positive number means more members predict things will be getting better than worse. The only quarter in which the GCI has been negative (so far) has been Q4 2008.

(more…)

UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 30 — We’ve finished compiling the full report (Thanks for your help, Michael!). Click here to view and/or download it.

In our survey from last week, more than 100 Guildmembers offered their predictions for their and the market’s performance in the near term. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which members have offered us their predictions.

Once we finish compiling all the commentary, we’ll publish a complete summary report. [UPDATE: The full report is now available here.] Until then, here are the highlights:

While fewer people (4%) predict the market will worsen than at any time in the past year, a dramatically larger percentage (64%) believe we’ve made all of our gains and predict that the next six months will be about the same as things are presently.

Also of note, the “Guildmember Confidence Index” declined for the first time since we began tracking it a year ago. While not as high as last quarter, anything above zero means that, on the whole, members expect improvement. While they continue to forecast improvement, they foresee less improvement in the near term than when they were asked the same question in prior quarters.

We’ll wait a few more days to give everyone an opportunity to reply to the survey, and then we’ll compile the feedback into a single document. You can read more about past Guildmember Confidence Reports by clicking here.

Back in early July, we posted a preview of the feedback to our most recent Guildmember Confidence survey. The full report is now available for your review. Click here to download it.

7/21/2009 update: CLICK HERE to download the full report.

An increasing number of members are expecting near term improvement in their company’s performance and the market in general, relative to the prior two quarters.**

The Guildmember Confidence Index is a measure of the percentage of members that forecast improvement minus the percentage that forecast decline. A positive number indicates that more members forecast improvement than decline. 100% is the highest possible number (if everyone forecasted improvement) and -100% is the lowest possible number (if everyone forecasted decline).

The GCI for members’ own companies is 49.5% for this quarter, up from 41.6% and -2.3% in Q1 2009 and Q4 2008 respectively. The GCI for the market in general is at 43.3%, up from 26.8% and -35.4% in Q1 2009 and Q4 2008 respectively. The former number is members’ assessment of their own businesses prospects. The latter is those same members’ assessment of the larger home building, remodeling, and real estate market.

We first conducted this survey of our home builders, remodelers, contractors, and real estate developers in October of 2008, and have since conducted the survey in the last two weeks of each quarter.

Thank you to all the members that have participated so far. I’ll publish a complete summary of the feedback, including comments and more data, within the next couple weeks.

** We continue to receive responses from members, and I expect the Q2 numbers to change very slightly. My final report will include all responses.

CLICK HERE to download the full report for Q2 2009. The Q1 2009 report is available here.