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Since the fourth quarter of 2008, we’ve regularly surveyed our members, asking their opinions about the near term future for both their company and the the construction and real estate industry. (click here to view all past reports)

In each Member Predictions Survey, we ask our members to answer two primary questions:

“Relative to the previous six months, what kind of change do you expect in YOUR COMPANY’S PERFORMANCE over the next six months?”

“Relative to the previous six months, what kind of change do you expect in THE MARKET over the next six months?”

As in prior quarters, more than 100 of our members participated. This quarter’s feedback (provided between mid-December and this morning) showed the most optimism since we began our “Guildmember Predictions” surveying. What follows are two ways of viewing their feedback, as well as all of the additional comments provided by our homebuilders, remodelers, real estate developers, and contractors.

Guildmember Confidence Index (GCI)

The Guildmember Confidence Index boils all of the answers down to a single number. We calculate the GCI by subtracting the percentage of members predicting decline from the percentage predicting improvement. Therefore, a positive number means more members predict things will be getting better than worse. The only quarter in which the GCI has been negative (so far) has been Q4 2008.

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UPDATE: SEPTEMBER 30 — We’ve finished compiling the full report (Thanks for your help, Michael!). Click here to view and/or download it.

In our survey from last week, more than 100 Guildmembers offered their predictions for their and the market’s performance in the near term. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which members have offered us their predictions.

Once we finish compiling all the commentary, we’ll publish a complete summary report. [UPDATE: The full report is now available here.] Until then, here are the highlights:

While fewer people (4%) predict the market will worsen than at any time in the past year, a dramatically larger percentage (64%) believe we’ve made all of our gains and predict that the next six months will be about the same as things are presently.

Also of note, the “Guildmember Confidence Index” declined for the first time since we began tracking it a year ago. While not as high as last quarter, anything above zero means that, on the whole, members expect improvement. While they continue to forecast improvement, they foresee less improvement in the near term than when they were asked the same question in prior quarters.

We’ll wait a few more days to give everyone an opportunity to reply to the survey, and then we’ll compile the feedback into a single document. You can read more about past Guildmember Confidence Reports by clicking here.

Back in early July, we posted a preview of the feedback to our most recent Guildmember Confidence survey. The full report is now available for your review. Click here to download it.

7/21/2009 update: CLICK HERE to download the full report.

An increasing number of members are expecting near term improvement in their company’s performance and the market in general, relative to the prior two quarters.**

The Guildmember Confidence Index is a measure of the percentage of members that forecast improvement minus the percentage that forecast decline. A positive number indicates that more members forecast improvement than decline. 100% is the highest possible number (if everyone forecasted improvement) and -100% is the lowest possible number (if everyone forecasted decline).

The GCI for members’ own companies is 49.5% for this quarter, up from 41.6% and -2.3% in Q1 2009 and Q4 2008 respectively. The GCI for the market in general is at 43.3%, up from 26.8% and -35.4% in Q1 2009 and Q4 2008 respectively. The former number is members’ assessment of their own businesses prospects. The latter is those same members’ assessment of the larger home building, remodeling, and real estate market.

We first conducted this survey of our home builders, remodelers, contractors, and real estate developers in October of 2008, and have since conducted the survey in the last two weeks of each quarter.

Thank you to all the members that have participated so far. I’ll publish a complete summary of the feedback, including comments and more data, within the next couple weeks.

** We continue to receive responses from members, and I expect the Q2 numbers to change very slightly. My final report will include all responses.

CLICK HERE to download the full report for Q2 2009. The Q1 2009 report is available here.

The NAHBR today announced that for the first time since 2005, more remodelers are predicting an improvement in the market than are expecting a decline.

The NAHBR’s findings describe a positive trend that we also saw in our own Guildmember Confidence Survey from March.

In October of 2008, we polled our members, requesting their forecast into what’s going to happen with their businesses and what will happen in the market in general. We also solicited comments about their strategies and thoughts on emerging and waning trends. Shortly after that survey, I published a brief summary of all of the feedback (the Q4 08 summary is available here).

In mid-March of 2009, we repeated the survey, and I was pleased with the results for two primary reasons: tons of participation and commentary, and much more optimism than the Q4 08 survey. Click here to download the complete report.

While there’s lots more commentary about strategy and trends in the download, below is a single chart that succinctly describes the change in sentiment.

UPDATE: You can download a complete summary of all the member feedback by clicking here.

In the previous two weeks, 125 members responded to our survey about their predictions for the market’s next six months and their strategies for overcoming the considerable challenges facing the building industry.

Expectations for the Market. When it comes to the market in general, 46% of members expect the decline to continue, and only 12% expect improvements. Members were considerably more optimistic when it comes to their own companies future, with as many people forecasting a much brighter road ahead as there were people predicting either more of the same or worsening conditions.

We’ll conduct a similar poll in three months, and hopefully see some positive change in these forecasts.

Strategy. Of much more interest were people’s feedback about their strategies for handling our extended stay in the Pit of Dispair. Strategies ranged from prayer to a deepened focus on their relationship with existing and past customers. Almost all of the strategies fell into one of eight categories. The predominant category was aggressive stewardship of resources with a focus on ensuring that the company has the resources to weather the storm. Second to that was an increased marketing, third was solidifying or strengthening their relationships with existing customers, and fourth was enhanced operations and systems.

Selected “Strategies” comments

“The challenging economic market is forcing companies to move outside their comfort zone. Those that respond quickly and efficiently will be better positioned once recovery begins.”

“Managing cash flow, backing out of existing land purchase agreements.”

“Leverage the heck out of our existing client base.”

“Customer service oriented, quality workmanship, lean business model, manage internal costs, increased marketing and sales efforts.”

“Never stop focusing on the customer first! Quality customer service along with quality product!”

“Developing a plan with timeframes and benchmarks to make additional reductions in overhead and staff.”

“Planning, using the crystal ball, crossing our fingers, not stepping on white lines, improving our marketing, getting better financial reporting, fine tuning our budget, watching our costs.

Emerging Trends. Among the emerging trends our members are predicting, it was no surprise to see energy efficiency becoming a big priority for customers, and home size and lot size waning in importance.

Selected “Emerging Trends” comments

“Energy efficient, sustainable building is (finally!) catching on and something that’s in most conversations in some way, shape or form.”

“Need products such as energy efficient replacement windows and baths are holding up substantially better and are a lower cost product.”

“They want the assurance they’re dealing with a reputable contractor. Not someone who will ‘take the money and run’.”

“Our customers are becoming more interested ‘green’ options that do not add significant cost i.e. open cell foam insulation, on-demand hot water units, geo-thermal systems or high SEER rated heat pumps, etc.”

“Cheaper more affordable homes, more storage, more garage, assistance with sale of their home.”

“It is a buyer’s market, so we are definitely working to be more flexible in accomodating requests. On the positive side, our willingness to refer has continued to rise, and while the overall number of customers is down, each individual buyer seems to have a higher average rating of satisfaction with their home and service from our team.”

“Green is big in the media, but the public seems somewhat less excited about the fast running train to Green. They still want their granite countertops in lieu of closed cell insulation.”

UPDATE: Download the complete summary by clicking here.

To all those that have responded to our “State of the Market Survey” so far, THANKS! More than 100 of you have offered your thoughts (quantitative responses along with hundreds of generous comments) on the current state of the market, your forecasts for the next six months, what you see as emerging and waning trends, and what you are doing to navigate the rough waters.

I’ll keep the survey open for a few more days before compiling all the results into a meaningful report, but I thought I’d post a brief preview of some of the feedback…

UPDATE: You can see more about this report here.